I will update this after each of the next 7 rounds..
Marc Marquez has won the 2016 Championship.
Marquez’s 2013 Championship was a fluke, he was handed it by the failures of others in the paddock. No doubt that he had a great year, and a championship earned is still a championship in the record books. It was Marc’s 2014 performance which established him as the future great of MotoGP. His record breaking season, and record breaking habits in general demonstrated his pure, raw and unabated skill. Marquez is going to be around for a long time, and from a statistical standpoint looks like he will easily surpass the likes of Rossi and Agostini. Marquez is just 23 and by the end of this year will have 5 titles. Only a fool would deny that he could easily be racing for 10 more years.. of which another 5 titles could come his way, and even if he doesn’t surpass them his is going to be a MotoGP legend.
With seven rounds left and a 50 point advantage, it would be fair to say that in order for Rossi or Lorenzo to catch Marc, Marc would have to crash or get at least one zero in those rounds. Rossi and Lorenzo would have to capitalize with wins to gain the maximum number of points. We can argue mathematics all day, clearly the championship is not over, not from a mathematical standpoint. However, we are familiar with Marc’s performance, and he may crash or have a DNF, a mechanical failure or both, but his is still going to be on the podium at least half of those races. 81% podium rate this year so far, 75% podium rate for races finished last year, and 77% of all races in 2014 of which he won 72% of the season a staggering 13 of 18 races. In 2013 he had a 100% podium rate for races he finished. (He retired once and had a black flag for a 88% podium rate over all of 2013.)
UPDATED: Post Silverstone six rounds left and Marc earned 13 Points… Surprising.. but still not a zero.. the lead is still 50 and now he only needs 60 points in three rounds to reach the 270 mark. That would not lock the championship.. but it would mean that Rossi would have to win at least once or Marc would have to have a DNF. If Marc collects as little as 30 points in the next three rounds, and Rossi wins all three the points would be. Marquez 240 and Rossi 235 and that is the best that Rossi could hope for short of a crash. Rossi would have to win the next three rounds to reach 235. with three rounds after that… he could of course catch Marc.. but there are so many other factors to consider.. Lorenzo, Iannone, Pedrosa possible rain… the Random winner.. ie Vinales, Miller, Crutchlow ect ect.. I stand by my original prediction.. Marc will be Champion.
If he has the same rate over the next seven rounds. He would be on the podium a minimum of 4 times for 64 points. I expect he will win at least two of those rounds, Silverstone and Phillip Island in those rounds alone he would earn between 64 and 132 points. If Marc wins two and has two 3rd places.. with 132 he would lock the championship with three rounds left. Even with the final three rounds DNF he would still lock the championship as he only needs a 75 point lead. It is for this reason I do hereby declare that Marc Marquez will be the 2016 MotoGP World Champion.